Methodology for determining the most severe risks of a construction project and identification of risky projects

Abstract

Construction projects involve very different kinds of risks of distinct natures and demand an agile and flexible risk assessment methodology. This study has analyzed scholarly literature and best practices to find current weaknesses. Two main solutions are presented in this paper in response to the findings of the analysis: a general purpose, quantitative key risk indicator, the “Risk Visibility Factor” (Fv), that yields a single linear 0-100 value for each risk event out of its impact and likelihood; and a summarizing method based on Fv to obtain the overall risk for two or more risk events, expressed as a single equivalent risk event with its own impact and likelihood. The first solution improves current risk assessment by providing a more intuitive and understandable indicator to rate risks and projects; the second one, with recursive capability, allows risk scenarios (e.g., projects) to be seen as single risk event, without any kind of limitation on the number and nature of risks, making it easier to compare the risk severity of distinct projects. Both solutions can be used to define the risk appetite and to compare with it any risk event or scenario.