Cost overrun estimation in the construction of high-rise buildings using fuzzy inference model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7764/RDLC.22.2.382Keywords:
Construction, cost overrun prediction, high-rise buildings, ANFIS model, PCA method.Abstract
Proper cost forecasting is a major parameter in the success of construction projects, and has a significant impact on various phases of a project, including its budget approval phase. Project managers usually look for solutions to reduce costs. It needs to identify the cost-rising factors, and to exclude them from projects. This study principally aimed at forecasting cost increase of high-rise building construction, using a neuro fuzzy inference model. In fact, the model is able to quantify cost overrun, resulted from each influencing factor, based on fuzzy logic. Through a vast literature review, 43 cost-influencing factors were identified, which then were reduced to 13, using the principal component analysis method, and experts’ opinions. The construction cost was then predicted by the inference model created, based on each factor. The results showed that the factor of “lack of commitment of the Ministry of Housing” had the greatest impact, while the factor of “not considering measures to resolve potential disputes” had the least impact on the estimation of cost overrun in high-rise buildings.
Downloads
References
Abu Hammad, A.A.; Ali, S.M.A.; Sweis, G.J.; Basher, A. Prediction Model for Construction Cost and Duration in Jordan. Jordan J. Civ. Eng. 2008, 2, 250–266.
Adam, A. M. (2020). Sample Size Determination in Survey Research. 26(5), 90–97. https://doi.org/10.9734/JSRR/2020/v26i530263
Ahiaga-Dagbui, D.D.; Smith, S.D. Dealing with construction cost overruns using data mining. Constr. Manag. Econ. 2014, 32, 682–694. doi:10.1080/01446193.2014.933854
Akali, T., & Sakaja, Y. (2018). Influence of contractors’ financial capacity on performance of road construction in Kakamega county. American Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences (ASRJETS), 46(1), 34-50.
Akinade, O. O., & Oyedele, L. O. (2019). Integrating construction supply chains within a circular economy : An ANFIS-based waste analytics system ( A-WAS ). Journal of Cleaner Production, 229, 863–873. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.232
Albtoush, A. F., & Doh, S. I. (2019). A Review on causes of cost overrun in the construction projects. International Journal of New Innovations in Engineering and Technology, 12(3), 15-22.
Alfakhri, A. Y. Y., Ismail, A., Khoiry, M. A., Arhad, I., & Irtema, H. I. M. (2017). A conceptual model of delay factors affecting road construction projects in Libya. Journal of Engineering Science and Technology, 12(12), 3286–3298.
Al-Hazim, N., Salem, Z. A., & Ahmad, H. (2017). Delay and Cost Overrun in Infrastructure Projects in Jordan. Procedia Engineering, 182, 18–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.03.105
Alsuliman, J. A. (2019a). Causes of delay in Saudi public construction projects. Alexandria Engineering Journal, 58(2), 801–808. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2019.07.002
Alsuliman, J. A. (2019b). Causes of delay in Saudi public construction projects. Alexandria Engineering Journal, 58(2), 801–808. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2019.07.002
Andri´c, J.M.; Mahamadu, A.; Wang, J.; Zou, P.X.W.; Zhong, R. The cost performance and causes of overruns in infrastructure development projects in Asia. J. Civil Eng. Manag. 2019, 25, 203–214
Asl, S. R. (2019). Assessing the Impacts of human needs on Enhancing of urban Tourism development ( Case study ; Shahrekord , Iran ). Advances in Engineering Research, 156 (Senvar 2018), 141–146.
Attala, M.; Hegazy, T. Predicting Cost Deviation in Reconstruction Projects: Artificial Neural Networks Versus Regression J. Constr. Eng. Manag. 2003, 129, 405–411
Aziz, A.A.A.; Memon, A.H.; Rahman, I.A.; Karim, A.T.A. Controlling cost overrun factors in construction projects in Malaysia. Res. J. Appl. Sci. Eng. Technol. 2013, 5, 2621–2629
Shoar, S. (2021). Modeling cost overrun in building construction projects using the interpretive structural modeling approach : a developing country perspective. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-08-2021-0732
Shehu Z, Endut IR, Akintoye A, Holt GD. 2014. Cost over- run in the Malaysian construction industry projects: a deeper insight. Int J Project Manage. 32(8):1471–1480. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.04.004
Balali, A., Moehler, R. C., & Valipour, A. (2020). Ranking cost overrun factors in the mega hospital construction projects using Delphi-SWARA method: An Iranian case study. International Journal of Construction Management, 1-9.
Basari, I. (2017), “Estimation risk of high risk building project on contractor”, IPTEK Journal of Engineering, Vol. 3 No. 2, pp. 29-34.
Bekr, G. A. (2016). Causes of delay in public construction projects in Iraq Causes of Delay in Public Construction Projects in Iraq. Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering, June.
Cantarelli, C. C., Flybjerg, B., Molin, E. J. E., & Wee, B. Van. (2018). Cost Overruns in Large-Scale Transport Infrastructure Projects. Automation in Construction, 2(1), 19.
Cantarelli, C.C.; Molin, E.J.E.; van Wee, B.; Flyvbjerg, B. Characteristics of cost overruns for Dutch transport infrastructure projects and the importance of the decision to build and project phases. Transp. Policy 2012, 22, 49–56
CAR-PUŠIĆ, D., TIJANIĆ, K., MAROVIĆ, I., & MLADEN, M. (2020). Predicting buildings construction cost overruns on the basis of cost overruns structure. Scientific Review Engineering and Environmental Sciences, 29(3), 366–376. https://doi.org/10.22630/PNIKS.2020.29.3.31
Chen, Y.; Hu, Z. Exploring the properties of cost overrun risk propagation network (CORPN) for promoting cost management. J. Civil Eng. Manag. 2019, 25, 1–18.
Cheng, Y. M. (2014). An exploration into cost-influencing factors on construction projects. International Journal of Project Management, 32(5), 850–860. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.10.003
Doloi, H., Sawhney, A., Iyer, K. C., & Rentala, S. (2012). Analysing factors affecting delays in Indian construction projects. International Journal of Project Management, 30(4), 479–489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2011.10.004
Derakhshanalavijeh, R.; Teixeira, J.M.C. Cost overrun in construction projects in developing countries, Gas-Oil industry of Iran as a case study. J. Civil Eng. Manag. 2017, 23, 125–136
Doğan SZ, Arditi D, Murat Günaydin H. Using Decision Trees for Determining Attribute Weights in a Case-Based Model of Early Cost Prediction. J Constr Eng Manag 2008;134:146–52. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2008)134:2(146)
Dolage D, Rathnamali D. 2013. Reasons of time overrun in construction phase of building projects: a case study on Department of Engineering Services of Sabaragamuwa Provincial Council. Engineer: J Inst Engineers Sri Lanka. 63(3): 9–18
El-Kholy, A.M. Predicting Cost Overrun in Construction Projects. Int. J. Construct. Eng. Manag. 2015, 4, 95–105
El-Sayegh, S.M. (2014), “Project risk management practices in the UAE construction industry”, International Journal ofProject Organisation andManagement, Vol. 6 Nos 1/2, pp. 121-137.
Fallahnejad, M. H. (2013). Delay causes in Iran gas pipeline projects. JPMA, 31(1), 136–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.06.003
Fernando, C.K., Hosseini, M.R., Zavadskas, E.K., Perera, B.A.K.S. and Rameezdeen, R. (2017), “Managing the financial risks affecting construction contractors: implementing hedging in Sri Lanka”, International Journal ofStrategic Property Management, Vol. 21 No. 2, pp. 212-224
Flyvbjerg, B., Ansar, A., Budzier, A., Buhl, S., Cantarelli, C., Gar- buio, M., Glenting, C., Skamris Holm, M., Lovallo, D., Lunn, D., Molin, E., Rønnest, A., Stewart, A., & van Wee, B. (2018). Five things you should know about cost overrun. Transporta- tion Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 118, 174-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.07.013
Flyvbjerg, B.; Holm, M.S.; Buhl, S. Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie? J. Am. Plan. Assoc. 2002, 68, 279–295
Forghani, A., Sadjadi, S. J., & Moghadam, B. F. (2018). A supplier selection model in pharmaceutical supply chain using PCA , Z-TOPSIS and MILP : A case study. PLoS ONE, 13(8), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0201604
França, A., & Haddad, A. (2018). Causes of Construction Projects Cost Overrun in Brazil. International Journal of Sustainable Construction Engineering & Technology (ISSN:, 9(1), 69–83. https://doi.org/https://10.30880/ijscet.2018.09.01.006
Ghahramanzadeh, M. 2013. Managing risk of construction projects: a case study of Iran: unpublished PhD. university of east London
Gebrehiwet, T., & Luo, H. (2017). Analysis of Delay Impact on Construction Project Based on RII and Correlation Coefficient: Empirical Study. Procedia Engineering, 196(June), 366–374. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.07.212
Gunduz, M.; Maki, O.L. Assessing the risk perception of cost overrun through importance rating. Technol. Econ. Dev. Econ. 2018, 24, 1829–1844
Hassanain, M.A. (2009), “On the challenges of evacuation and rescue operations in high-rise buildings”, Structural Survey, Vol. 27 No. 2, pp. 109-118.
Hegazy, T.; Ayed Neural Network Model for Parametric Cost Estimation of Highway Projects. J. Constr. Eng. Manag. 1998, 124, 210–218.
Heravi, G. and Mohammadian, M. (2021), “Investigating cost overruns and delay in urban construction projects in Iran”, International Journal of Construction Management, Vol. 21, pp. 958-968
Huo, T.; Ren, H.; Cai, W.; Shen, G.Q.; Liu, B.; Zhu, M.; Wu, H. Measurement and dependence analysis of cost overruns in megatransport infrastructure projects: Case study in Hong Kong. J. Construct. Eng. Manag. 2018, 144, 05018001
Ji, S.H.; Park, M.; Lee, H.S. Cost Estimation Model for Building Projects Using Case-Based Reasoning. Can. J. Civ. Eng. 2011, 38, 570–581.
Kamaruddeen, A. M., Sung, C. F., & Wahi, W. (2020). A study on factors causing cost overrun of construction projects in Sarawak, Malaysia. Civil Engineering and Architecture, 8(3), 191–199. https://doi.org/10.13189/cea.2020.080301
Kaming, P. F., Olomolaiye, P. O., Holt, G. D., & Harris, F. C. (1997). Factors influencing construction time and cost overruns on high-rise projects in Indonesia. Construction Management and Economics, 15(1), 83–94. https://doi.org/10.1080/014461997373132
Khanal, B. P., & Ojha, S. K. (2020). Cause of time and cost overruns in the construction project in Nepal. Advances in Science, Technology and Engineering Systems, 5(4), 192–195. https://doi.org/10.25046/aj050423
Kim, K.J.; Kim, K. Preliminary Cost Estimation Model Using Case-Based Reasoning and Genetic Algorithms. J. Comput. Civ. Eng. 2010, 24, 499–505.
Kim G-H, An S-H, Kang K-I. Comparison of construction cost estimating models based on regression analysis, neural networks, and case-based reasoning. Build Environ 2004;39:1235–42. doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2004.02.013.
Larsen, J.K.; Shen, G.Q.; Lindhard, S.M.; Ditlev, T. FactorsAffecting Schedule Delay, Cost Overrun, and Quality Level in Public Construction Projects. J. Manag. Eng. 2016, 32, 1–29
Li, H., Arditi, D., & Wang, Z. (2015). Determinants of transaction costs in construction projects. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 21(5), 548–558. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2014.897973
Lind, H.; Brunes, F.; Lind, H.; Brunes, F. Explaining cost overruns in infrastructure projects: Anew framework with applications to Sweden. Construct. Manag. Econ. 2015, 33, 554–568
Liu J-G, Zhang X-L, Wu W-P. Application of Fuzzy Neural Network for Real Estate Prediction, 2006, p. 1187–91. doi:10.1007/11760191_173
Lowe, D.J.; Emsley, M.W.; Harding, A. Predicting Construction Cost Using Multiple Regression Techniques J. Constr. Eng. Manag. 2006, 132, 750–758.
Mary, J. R., Robin, B., & Ipe, I. (2018). Time and cost overruns in the UAE construction industry : a critical analysis. International Journal of Construction Management, 0(0), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2018.1484864
Mohammad, S., Tabatabaei, M., Taabayan, P., Hashemi, A. M., & Willoughby, K. (2016). Studying the Reasons for Delay and Cost Overrun in Construction Projects : The Case of Iran. Journal of Construction in Developing Countries, 21(1), 51–84. https://doi.org/10.21315/jcdc2016.21.1.
Najafabadi EA, Pimplikar SS. 2013. The significant causes and effects of delays in Ghadir. IOSR-JMCE. 7(4):75–81.
Naik MG, Kumar DR. Construction Project Cost and Duration Optimization Using Artificial Neural Network. AEI 2015, Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers; 2015, p. 433–44. doi:10.1061/9780784479070.038
Niazi, G. A., & Painting, N. (2017). Significant Factors Causing Cost Overruns in the Construction Industry in Afghanistan. Procedia Engineering, 182, 510–517. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.03.145
Nieto-Morote, A. and Ruz-Vila, F. (2011), “A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment”, International Journal ofProject Management, Vol. 29 No. 2, pp. 220-231
Odeck, J. Cost overruns in road construction: What are their sizes and determinants? Transp. Policy 2004, 11, 43–53
Parchami Jalal, M. and Shoar, S. (2019), “A hybrid framework to model factors affecting construction labour productivity: case study of Iran”, Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, Vol. 24 No. 3, pp. 630-654, doi: 10.1108/JFMPC-10-2018-0061
Perera, B. A. K. S., Samarakkody, A. L., & Nandasena, S. R. (2020). Managing financial and economic risks associated with high-rise apartment building construction in Sri Lanka. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 25(1), 143–162. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFMPC-04-2019-0038
Pham, H., Luu, T. Van, Kim, S. Y., & Vien, D. T. (2020). Assessing the Impact of Cost Overrun Causes in Transmission Lines Construction Projects. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 24(4), 1029–1036. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-020-1391-5
Plebankiewicz, E., & Wieczorek, D. (2020). Prediction of Cost Overrun Risk in Construction Projects. Sustainability, 12(9341).
Pourrostam, T., & Ismail, A. Bin. (2012). Causes and Effects of Delay in Iranian Construction Projects. International Journal of Engineering and Technology, January. https://doi.org/10.7763/IJET.2012.V4.441
Puncreobutr, V., & Mon Khin, M. M. (2017). Cost Management of the High-Rise Buildings in Thailand. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2963521
Puncreobutr, V., Pengsa-ium, V., Khamkhong, Y., & Kriengsantikul, T. (2018). Identifying and Analyzing Risks in the Construction of High Rise Buildings Along the Sky Train Rails in Bangkok. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3179360
Samarghandi, H., Tabatabaei, S.M.M., Taabayan, P., Hashemi, A.M. and Willoughby, K. (2016), “Studying the reasons for delay and cost overrun in construction projects: the case of Iran”, Journal of Construction in Developing Countries, Vol. 21 No. 1, pp. 51-84, doi: 10.21315/jcdc2016. 21.1.4
San Santoso, D., Ogunlana, S.O. and Minato, T. (2003a), “Assessment of risks in high-rise building construction in Jakarta”, Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, Vol. 10 No. 1, pp. 43-55
San Santoso, D., Ogunlana, S.O. and Minato, T. (2003b), “Perceptions of risk based on level of experience for high-rise building contractors”, International Journal of Construction Management, Vol. 3 No. 1, pp. 49-62.
Senouci, A.; Ismail, A.; Eldin, N. Time Delay and Cost Overrun in Qatari Public Construction Projects. Proc. Eng. 2016, 164, 368–375
Shah Kapur, R. (2016). An Exploration of Causes for Delay and Cost Overruns In Construction an exploration of causes for delay and cost overrun in construction projects : a case study of Australia , Malaysia &. Journal of Advanced College of Engineering and Management, July. https://doi.org/10.3126/jacem.v2i0.16097
Shehab T, Farooq M, Sandhu S, Nguyen T-H, Nasr E. Cost Estimating Models for Utility Rehabilitation Projects: Neural Networks versus Regression. J Pipeline Syst Eng Pract 2010;1:104– 10. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)PS.1949-1204.0000058
Shoar, S. (2021). Modeling cost overrun in building construction projects using the interpretive structural modeling approach : a developing country perspective. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-08-2021-0732
Shoar, S. and Chileshe, N. (2021), “Exploring the causes of design changes in building construction projects: an interpretive structural modeling approach”, Sustainability, Vol. 13, 9578, doi: 10.3390/ su13179578
Smith AE, Mason AK. cost estimation predictive modeling: regression versus neural network. Eng Econ 1997;42:137–61. doi:10.1080/00137919708903174
Susanti, R. (2020). Cost overrun and time delay of construction project in Indonesia. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1444(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1444/1/012050
Sweis GJ, Sweis R, Rumman MA, Hussein RA, Dahiya SE. 2013. Cost overruns in public construction projects: the case of Jordan. J Am Sci. 9:134–141
Wang Y-R, Yu C-Y, Chan H-H. Predicting construction cost and schedule success using artificial neural networks ensemble and support vector machines classification models. Int J Proj Manag 2012;30:470–8. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2011.09.002.
World Health Organization (2019), “Global health observatory (GHO) data”, available at: http://www. who.int/gho/urban_health/en/ (accessed 14 August 2019).
Zubair A., and Ataguba, J O., (2019). Impact of Contractors’ Financial Capability on Construction Project truction Project Delivery in Nigeria. International Journal of Environmental Studies and Safety Research. Volume 4, Number 2, June 2019.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Ali Paydar, Yaser Khademi Fahraji, Abbas Tajaddini, Zahra Sabzi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
