Simulación del tsunami de 1960 en un estuario del centro-sur de Chile
Palavras-chave:
Tsunami, modelación, riesgoResumo
Se modela el tsunami de 1960 en un estuario del centro-sur de Chile. La reconstrucción del evento se realizó mediante la modelación del escenario sísmico tsunamigénico, utilizando una técnica de simulación numérica de tsunamis de campo cercano, permitiendo caracterizar el proceso de generación, propagación e inundación generada por las ondas en las áreas costeras bajas. Los resultados de la simulación del tsunami se validan con antecedentes y evidencias existentes del evento real.
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Referências
ATWATER, B.; JIMÉNEZ, N. & VITAFINZI, C. Net late Holocene emergence despite earthquake-induced submergence, south-central Chile. Quaternary International, 1992, Nº 15-16, p. 77-85.
ATWATER, B.; CISTERNAS, M.; BOURGEOIS, J.; DUDLEY, W.; HENDLEY, J. & STAUFFER, P. Surviving a Tsunami - Lessons from Chile, Hawaii, and Japan. Circular 1187 USGS,1999, p.18.
ATWATER, B.; CISTERNAS, M.; SALGADO, I.; MACHUCA, G.; LAGOS, M.; EIPERT, A. & SHISHIKURA, M. Incubation of Chile’s 1960 Earthquake. Eos Transaction AGU, 84(46), Fall Meet. Suppl., 2003, Abstract G22E-01.
BARRIENTOS, S. & WARD, S. The 1960 Chile earthquake: Inversion for slip distribution from surface deformation. Geophysical Journal International, 1990, Nº 103, p. 589-598.
BERNARD, E. Tsunami: Reduction of Impacts through three Key Actions (TROIKA). Proceedings of the International Tsunami Symposium 2001 (ITS 2001), Session 1-1, Seattle, WA, 2001, p. 247- 262.
CISTERNAS, M.; ARANEDA, A. y CONTRERAS, I. Reconocimiento y caracterización de la facies sedimentaria depositada por el tsunami de 1960 en el estuario Maullín, Chile. Revista Geológica de Chile, 2000, Nº 27(1), p. 3-11.
CISTERNAS, M. Suelos enterrados revelan la prehistoria sísmica del Centro- Sur de Chile durante los últimos dos milenios. Revista de Geografía Norte Grande, 2005, N° 33, p. 19-31.
DENGLER, L.; LUDY, B. & PATTON, J. Relative Tsunami Hazard Maps, Humboldt County, California. Eos Transaction AGU, 84(46), Fall Meet. Suppl., 2003, Abstract
OS22B-1162.
FUJIMA, K. Long wave propagation on large roughness. Proceedings of the International Tsunami Symposium 2001 (ITS 2001), Session 7-22, Seattle, WA, 7-10 August 2001, 2001, p. 891-895.
GONZÁLEZ, F.; TITOV, V.; MOFJELD, H.; VENTURATO, A.; SCOTT, R.; HANSEN, R.; COMBELLICK, R.; EISNER, R.; HOIRUP, D.; YANAGI, B.; YONG, S.; DARIENZO, M.; PRIEST, G.; CRAWFORD, G. & WALSH, T. Progress in NTHMP Hazard Assessment. Natural Hazards, 2005, 35(1), p. 89-110.
GOTO, C. & OGAWA, Y. Numerical Method of Tsunami Simulation with the Leap-frog Scheme. Tohoku: Dept. of Civil Engineering, Tohoku University. Translated for the TIME Project by N. Shuto, 1992.
GOTO, C.; OGAWA, Y.; SHUTO, N. & IMAMURA, F. Numerical Method of Tsunami Simulation with the Leap-Frog Scheme. IUGG/IOC TIME Project Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO, Manuals and Guides, 1997, N° 35, p. 126.
IWASAKI, T. & MANO, A. Twodimensional numerical computation of tsunami run-ups in the Eulerian description. Twenty-sixth Conference on Coastal Engineering, Tokyo, 1979, p. 70-74.
KANAMORI, H. The Energy Release in Great Earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1977, Vol. 82, Nº 20, p. 2981- 2987.
KOSHIMURA, S.; MOFJELD, H.; GONZÁLEZ, F. & MOORE, A. Modeling the 1100 bp paleotsunami in Puget Sound, Washington. Geophysical Research Letters, 2002, Vol. 29, Nº 20, 1948.
LAGOS, M. Tsunamis de origen cercano a las costas de Chile. Revista de Geografía Norte Grande, 2000, N° 27, p. 93-102.
LAGOS, M. y CISTERNAS, M. Depósitos de tsunami como indicadores de riesgo: evidencias sedimentarias. Revista Geográfica de Chile Terra Australis, 2004, N° 49, p. 329-351.
LOCKRIDGE, P. Tsunamis in Peru-Chile. Report SE-39, World Data Center A for Solid Earth Geophysics USA, 1985, p. 97.
LYNETT, P.; BORRERO, J.; LIU, P. & SYNOLAKIS, C. Field survey and numerical simulations: A review of the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2003, 160(10-11), p. 2119- 2146.
MANSHINHA, L. & SMYLIE, D. The displacement field of inclined faults. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 1971, Vol.61, Nº 5, p. 1433-1440.
MARRIS, E. Inadequate warning system left Asia at the mercy of tsunami. Nature, 2005, Nº 433, p. 3-5.
NANAYAMA, F.; SATAKE, K.; FURUKAWA, R.; SHIMOKAWA, K.; ATWATER, B.; SHIGENO, K. & YAMAKI, S. Unusually large earthquakes inferred from tsunami deposits along the Kuril trench. Nature, 2003, Nº 424, p. 660-663.
NIEMAYER, H. y CERECEDA, P. Hidrografía. Geografía de Chile. Tomo VIII. Santiago: Instituto Geográfico Militar (IGM), 1984, Vol.8, p. 309.
PLAFKER, G. & SAVAGE, J. Mechanism of the Chilean earthquakes of May 21 and 22, 1960. Geological Society of America Bulletin, 1970, Nº 81, p. 1001-1030.
SATAKE, K. Tsunamis. In LEE, W.; KANAMORI, H.; JENNINGS, P. & KISSLINGER, C. (eds.) International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, 2002, 1A, p. 437-451.
SATAKE, K. & TANIOKA, Y. The July 1998 Papua New Guinea earthquake: Mechanism and quantification of unusual tsunami generation. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2003, 160(10-11), p. 2087- 2118.
SATAKE, K.; WANG, K. & ATWATER, B. Fault slip and seismic moment of the 1700 Cascadia earthquake inferred from Japanese tsunami descriptions. Journal of
Geophysical Research, 2003, 108(B11), p. 2535.
SATO, H.; MURAKAMI, H.; KOZUKI, Y. & YAMAMOTO, N. Study on a Simplified Method of Tsunami Risk Assessment. Natural Hazards, 2003, 29(3), p. 325-340. Servicio Hidrográfico y Oceanográfico de la Armada (SHOA). El maremoto del 22 de mayo de 1960 en las costas de Chile. Valparaíso: Servicio Hidrográfico y Oceanográfico de la Armada de Chile, 1961.
SMITH, W. & SANDWELL, D. Seafloor topography from satellite altimetry and ship depth soundings. Science, 1997, 277, p. 1957-1962.
SUGIMOTO, T.; MURAKAMI, H.; KOZUKI, Y.; NISHIKAWA, K. & SHIMADA, T. A human damage prediction method for Tsunami disasters incorporating evacuation activities. Natural Hazards, 2003, 29(3), p. 587-602.
TANIOKA, Y.; NISHIMURA, Y.; HIRAKAWA, K.; IMAMURA, F.; ABE, I.; ABE, Y. SHINDOU, K.; MATSUTOMI, H.; TAKAHASHI, T.; IMAI, K.; HARADA, K.; NAMEGAWA, Y.; HASEGAWA, Y.; HAYASHI, Y.; NANAYAMA, F.; KAMATAKI, T.; KAWATA, Y.; FUKASAWA, Y.; KOSHIMURA, S.; HADA, Y.; AZUMAI, Y.; HIRATA, K.; KAMIKAWA, A.; YOSHIKAWA, A.; SHIGA, T.; KOBAYASHI, M. & MASAKA, S. Tsunami run-up heights of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake. Earth Planets and Space, 2004, 56(3), p. 359-365.
THOMAS, H.; BOWES, W.; BRAVO, N. Field observations made between Puerto Montt y Maullín. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 1963, 53(6), p. 1353-1356.
VENTURATO, A.; TITOV, V.; MOFJELD, H. & GONZÁLEZ, F. NOAA TIME Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca, Washington, Mapping Project: Procedures, Data Sources, and
products. Contribution 2713 from NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 2004, p. 26.
VEYL, C. Los sismos y las erupciones de mayo de 1960 en el sur de Chile. Boletín Sociedad Chilena de Química, 1961, 11(1- 2), p. 20-32.
WALSH, T.; TITOV, V.; VENTURATO, A.; MOFJELD, H. & GONZÁLEZ, F. Tsunami Hazard Map of the Bellingham Area, Washington: Modeled Tsunami Inundation from a Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake. Washington: Division of geology and earth resources, open filereport 2004-15, scale 1:50.000, 2004.
WATTS, P.; WALDER, J. & WAYTHOMAS, C. A novel tsunami inundation mapping technique. Eos Transaction AGU, 84(46), Fall Meet. Suppl., 2003, Abstract OS22B-1161, 2003.
ZAHIBO, N.; PELINOVSKY, E.; YALCINER, A.; KURKIN, A.; KOSELKOV, A. & ZAITSEV, A. The 1867 Virgin Island tsunami: observations and modeling. Oceanologica Acta, 2003, Nº 26, p. 609- 621.
ATWATER, B.; CISTERNAS, M.; BOURGEOIS, J.; DUDLEY, W.; HENDLEY, J. & STAUFFER, P. Surviving a Tsunami - Lessons from Chile, Hawaii, and Japan. Circular 1187 USGS,1999, p.18.
ATWATER, B.; CISTERNAS, M.; SALGADO, I.; MACHUCA, G.; LAGOS, M.; EIPERT, A. & SHISHIKURA, M. Incubation of Chile’s 1960 Earthquake. Eos Transaction AGU, 84(46), Fall Meet. Suppl., 2003, Abstract G22E-01.
BARRIENTOS, S. & WARD, S. The 1960 Chile earthquake: Inversion for slip distribution from surface deformation. Geophysical Journal International, 1990, Nº 103, p. 589-598.
BERNARD, E. Tsunami: Reduction of Impacts through three Key Actions (TROIKA). Proceedings of the International Tsunami Symposium 2001 (ITS 2001), Session 1-1, Seattle, WA, 2001, p. 247- 262.
CISTERNAS, M.; ARANEDA, A. y CONTRERAS, I. Reconocimiento y caracterización de la facies sedimentaria depositada por el tsunami de 1960 en el estuario Maullín, Chile. Revista Geológica de Chile, 2000, Nº 27(1), p. 3-11.
CISTERNAS, M. Suelos enterrados revelan la prehistoria sísmica del Centro- Sur de Chile durante los últimos dos milenios. Revista de Geografía Norte Grande, 2005, N° 33, p. 19-31.
DENGLER, L.; LUDY, B. & PATTON, J. Relative Tsunami Hazard Maps, Humboldt County, California. Eos Transaction AGU, 84(46), Fall Meet. Suppl., 2003, Abstract
OS22B-1162.
FUJIMA, K. Long wave propagation on large roughness. Proceedings of the International Tsunami Symposium 2001 (ITS 2001), Session 7-22, Seattle, WA, 7-10 August 2001, 2001, p. 891-895.
GONZÁLEZ, F.; TITOV, V.; MOFJELD, H.; VENTURATO, A.; SCOTT, R.; HANSEN, R.; COMBELLICK, R.; EISNER, R.; HOIRUP, D.; YANAGI, B.; YONG, S.; DARIENZO, M.; PRIEST, G.; CRAWFORD, G. & WALSH, T. Progress in NTHMP Hazard Assessment. Natural Hazards, 2005, 35(1), p. 89-110.
GOTO, C. & OGAWA, Y. Numerical Method of Tsunami Simulation with the Leap-frog Scheme. Tohoku: Dept. of Civil Engineering, Tohoku University. Translated for the TIME Project by N. Shuto, 1992.
GOTO, C.; OGAWA, Y.; SHUTO, N. & IMAMURA, F. Numerical Method of Tsunami Simulation with the Leap-Frog Scheme. IUGG/IOC TIME Project Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO, Manuals and Guides, 1997, N° 35, p. 126.
IWASAKI, T. & MANO, A. Twodimensional numerical computation of tsunami run-ups in the Eulerian description. Twenty-sixth Conference on Coastal Engineering, Tokyo, 1979, p. 70-74.
KANAMORI, H. The Energy Release in Great Earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1977, Vol. 82, Nº 20, p. 2981- 2987.
KOSHIMURA, S.; MOFJELD, H.; GONZÁLEZ, F. & MOORE, A. Modeling the 1100 bp paleotsunami in Puget Sound, Washington. Geophysical Research Letters, 2002, Vol. 29, Nº 20, 1948.
LAGOS, M. Tsunamis de origen cercano a las costas de Chile. Revista de Geografía Norte Grande, 2000, N° 27, p. 93-102.
LAGOS, M. y CISTERNAS, M. Depósitos de tsunami como indicadores de riesgo: evidencias sedimentarias. Revista Geográfica de Chile Terra Australis, 2004, N° 49, p. 329-351.
LOCKRIDGE, P. Tsunamis in Peru-Chile. Report SE-39, World Data Center A for Solid Earth Geophysics USA, 1985, p. 97.
LYNETT, P.; BORRERO, J.; LIU, P. & SYNOLAKIS, C. Field survey and numerical simulations: A review of the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2003, 160(10-11), p. 2119- 2146.
MANSHINHA, L. & SMYLIE, D. The displacement field of inclined faults. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 1971, Vol.61, Nº 5, p. 1433-1440.
MARRIS, E. Inadequate warning system left Asia at the mercy of tsunami. Nature, 2005, Nº 433, p. 3-5.
NANAYAMA, F.; SATAKE, K.; FURUKAWA, R.; SHIMOKAWA, K.; ATWATER, B.; SHIGENO, K. & YAMAKI, S. Unusually large earthquakes inferred from tsunami deposits along the Kuril trench. Nature, 2003, Nº 424, p. 660-663.
NIEMAYER, H. y CERECEDA, P. Hidrografía. Geografía de Chile. Tomo VIII. Santiago: Instituto Geográfico Militar (IGM), 1984, Vol.8, p. 309.
PLAFKER, G. & SAVAGE, J. Mechanism of the Chilean earthquakes of May 21 and 22, 1960. Geological Society of America Bulletin, 1970, Nº 81, p. 1001-1030.
SATAKE, K. Tsunamis. In LEE, W.; KANAMORI, H.; JENNINGS, P. & KISSLINGER, C. (eds.) International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, 2002, 1A, p. 437-451.
SATAKE, K. & TANIOKA, Y. The July 1998 Papua New Guinea earthquake: Mechanism and quantification of unusual tsunami generation. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2003, 160(10-11), p. 2087- 2118.
SATAKE, K.; WANG, K. & ATWATER, B. Fault slip and seismic moment of the 1700 Cascadia earthquake inferred from Japanese tsunami descriptions. Journal of
Geophysical Research, 2003, 108(B11), p. 2535.
SATO, H.; MURAKAMI, H.; KOZUKI, Y. & YAMAMOTO, N. Study on a Simplified Method of Tsunami Risk Assessment. Natural Hazards, 2003, 29(3), p. 325-340. Servicio Hidrográfico y Oceanográfico de la Armada (SHOA). El maremoto del 22 de mayo de 1960 en las costas de Chile. Valparaíso: Servicio Hidrográfico y Oceanográfico de la Armada de Chile, 1961.
SMITH, W. & SANDWELL, D. Seafloor topography from satellite altimetry and ship depth soundings. Science, 1997, 277, p. 1957-1962.
SUGIMOTO, T.; MURAKAMI, H.; KOZUKI, Y.; NISHIKAWA, K. & SHIMADA, T. A human damage prediction method for Tsunami disasters incorporating evacuation activities. Natural Hazards, 2003, 29(3), p. 587-602.
TANIOKA, Y.; NISHIMURA, Y.; HIRAKAWA, K.; IMAMURA, F.; ABE, I.; ABE, Y. SHINDOU, K.; MATSUTOMI, H.; TAKAHASHI, T.; IMAI, K.; HARADA, K.; NAMEGAWA, Y.; HASEGAWA, Y.; HAYASHI, Y.; NANAYAMA, F.; KAMATAKI, T.; KAWATA, Y.; FUKASAWA, Y.; KOSHIMURA, S.; HADA, Y.; AZUMAI, Y.; HIRATA, K.; KAMIKAWA, A.; YOSHIKAWA, A.; SHIGA, T.; KOBAYASHI, M. & MASAKA, S. Tsunami run-up heights of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake. Earth Planets and Space, 2004, 56(3), p. 359-365.
THOMAS, H.; BOWES, W.; BRAVO, N. Field observations made between Puerto Montt y Maullín. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 1963, 53(6), p. 1353-1356.
VENTURATO, A.; TITOV, V.; MOFJELD, H. & GONZÁLEZ, F. NOAA TIME Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca, Washington, Mapping Project: Procedures, Data Sources, and
products. Contribution 2713 from NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 2004, p. 26.
VEYL, C. Los sismos y las erupciones de mayo de 1960 en el sur de Chile. Boletín Sociedad Chilena de Química, 1961, 11(1- 2), p. 20-32.
WALSH, T.; TITOV, V.; VENTURATO, A.; MOFJELD, H. & GONZÁLEZ, F. Tsunami Hazard Map of the Bellingham Area, Washington: Modeled Tsunami Inundation from a Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake. Washington: Division of geology and earth resources, open filereport 2004-15, scale 1:50.000, 2004.
WATTS, P.; WALDER, J. & WAYTHOMAS, C. A novel tsunami inundation mapping technique. Eos Transaction AGU, 84(46), Fall Meet. Suppl., 2003, Abstract OS22B-1161, 2003.
ZAHIBO, N.; PELINOVSKY, E.; YALCINER, A.; KURKIN, A.; KOSELKOV, A. & ZAITSEV, A. The 1867 Virgin Island tsunami: observations and modeling. Oceanologica Acta, 2003, Nº 26, p. 609- 621.
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LAGOS, M., & GUTIÉRREZ, D. . (2021). Simulación del tsunami de 1960 en un estuario del centro-sur de Chile. Revista De Geografía Norte Grande, (33), 5–18. Recuperado de https://revistanortegrande.uc.cl/index.php/RGNG/article/view/43665
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